CNE – Centro Para Una Nueva Economía – Center for a New Economy
Non-profit, economic research and policy development organization
Como es de conocimiento general, la ley 7 del 9 de marzo de 2009 requiere que el gobierno de Puerto Rico recorte los gastos operacionales, incluyendo n贸mina, con cargo al fondo general por la cantidad $2,000 millones durante el a帽o fiscal en curso (2010).聽 Para lograr estos ahorros la ley 7 establece un proceso de tres fases.
Current discussions on the impact of expected employment reductions in Puerto Rico鈥檚 government have emphasized aggregate macro-economic effects such as the potential contraction in aggregate consumption, and the risk of increased default levels聽in household debt.聽 However, there has been hardly any focus on the specific social sectors that would bear the brunt of the impact of such dismissals.聽
Recently released economic data for Puerto Rico present a significantly deteriorating economic picture.聽 The Puerto Rico Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate for the month of July was 16.5%, the highest level in 16 years.聽 If we take into account the unemployed who are not looking for jobs, the so-called discouraged workers, and those who are underemployed, who desire to work full time but can only find part-time work, the island鈥檚 unemployment rate would probably approximate 25%.
Durante el a帽o fiscal 2009 la deuda p煤blica total de Puerto Rico igual贸 por primera vez en tiempos recientes el Producto Nacional Bruto (PNB) de la isla. Los economistas consideran este indicador como de gran importancia porque si la proporci贸n entre deuda y el PNB crece a una tasa r谩pida, las instituciones financieras que le prestan dinero al Gobierno podr铆an cuestionar la solvencia financiera de 茅ste y demandar intereses m谩s altos cuando le compran deuda.
La聽Junta de Planificaci贸n聽anunci贸 el viernes pasado que la reducci贸n en el Produto Nacional Bruto para el A帽o Fiscal 2009 fue de 5.5%. 聽Esa contracci贸n evidentemente fue m谩s profunda de lo que se esperaba. 聽En nuestra opini贸n esto pone en duda la posibilidad de una recuperaci贸n r谩pida en Puerto Rico.聽
Recently there has been a lot of talk among U.S. economists about “green shoots” and “seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” popular ways of saying that the worst of the current recession is over and growth will probably resume late this year or early 2010. In Puerto Rico, however, economic indicators continue to hover in negative territory.
Here鈥檚 an excerpt from our latest report, written by Sergio Marxuach, on the worrying trends regarding Puerto Rico鈥檚 public debt. The full report is available here. We have also posted a brief interview, in Spanish, that explains the nuts and bolts of the report.
In 1923 John Maynard Keynes published his Tract on Monetary Reform, which was his first attempt to analyze the monetary instability that plagued the post-World War I world. In classic contrarian fashion, one of Keynes’ conclusions was that central bankers – by shackling tehemselves to the “barbarous relic” of the gold standard – were actually exacerbating monetary problems.
